Three scenarios of the development of the global economy after the coronavirus pandemic are described.According to the first scenario, states with the largest economies will continue to pursue self-isolation even after the completion of the coronavirus pandemic. The expert explained that the epidemic served as a “trigger for current protectionism”, but its cause is a strong increase in globalization, due to which countries such as the United States suffered losses. “We will continue to observe an increase in protectionism and a trend towards the strengthening of nation-states,” he noted.
The second scenario is based on large-scale support of banks and enterprises at the national level. According to Kelimbetov, it is now very important to use the economic potential of countries, which, first of all, is “associated with the use of our reserves, attracting direct investment, and international liquidity”.
The third scenario provides for the formation of trade blocks and the division into several independent macro-regions. “There will be a division into macro-regions, and here the role of, for example, our organization and financial systems in general is especially important - it will, first of all, be about pairing such macro-regions with each other,” the specialist explained.
In April, McKinsey consulting company published a study that described two scenarios of the global economy after a pandemic. According to an optimistic forecast, after a sharp decline lasting a quarter, which may become the largest since the Second World War, an equally sharp recovery will follow. Pessimistic scenarios suggest that the epidemic will not be controlled, and most of the world's population will suffer from coronavirus infection. The seriousness of the consequences of such a development for the global economy will depend on how well the measures of governments to support the economy work.
On March 11, the World Health Organization announced an outbreak of a new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. According to the latest data, about 4.9 million cases of infection have been recorded in the world, more than 328 thousand people have died.